Polls and bookie's odds are only a snapshot in time and there's a long way to go to May's General Election on 7 May but it's looking much, much tighter for Danny. Could the 7th of May 2015 be shaping up as "Danny oot!" day?
The Tories who have recently selected a candidate, Edward Mountain, have moved out this week from 66/1 to 100/1 and Labour have moved out slightly too to 8/1. Is there anyway back into contention for Labour's Mike Robb who has invested time and energy into that party's hopes? The SNP haven't selected a candidate yet but the Gurn understands that that will possibly be rectified by the end of the month.
It's a far cry from the days when the seat that contained Inverness and Nairn (it had Lochaber included in those days) was touted as the only four-way marginal in the Country with the winner in 1992 getting past the post with only 26% of the popular vote in the constituency. The four major parties were separated by only 3.41% of the vote in the constituency as it existed at the time. More details here.
There is no doubt that the race will tighten the nearer we get to May's election. People will be voting for who they wish to be in Government at Westminster. It is unlikely that the SNP would be part of any Government and campaigns to punish the "No" parties by voting for the SNP may result in a Tory Government ruling alone. What a depressing prospect.
ReplyDeleteThe LibDems lost every ounce of credibility through broken vows and showing their true blue colours. Danny has had his chips. The SNP will ensure Scotland gets the best deal :-)
ReplyDeleteWe have to remember that bookies are not, strictly, in the business of publicly forecasting the winners in any sporting, political or weather event, for a start.
ReplyDeleteBookies are in business to make money, literally to 'balance their books'
It follows that if a bookie has taken significant money on a particular bet, e.g. an SNP victory in Nairn, he will shorten the odds on that result, and lengthen the odds on other parties to tempt other punters to put their money there.
It might be, for example, that Nairn voters include a significant number of SNP supporters who are also betting men. Perhaps LibDems and Labour are less easily easily tempted to put money out. In that case the odds on those parties should lengthen over the next six months to being more attractive- so the bookie makes his share too.
Have you ever seen a poor bookmaker?